Anyone Concerned About Giant Electrical Solar Flare Set To Fry Electronics Worldwide In 2012?

No; seriously. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but this is from the article on NASA's website about the last such event, in 1859. The next is predicted for 2012:

"Even more disconcerting, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. Spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set the telegraph paper on fire. Even when telegraphers disconnected the batteries powering the lines, aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted.

...The next morning when the CME arrived, it crashed into Earth's magnetic field, causing the global bubble of magnetism that surrounds our planet to shake and quiver. Researchers call this a "geomagnetic storm." Rapidly moving fields induced enormous electric currents that surged through telegraph lines and disrupted communications.

... (20th century) aurora-induced power surges even melted power transformers in New Jersey ..."

I don't mean to alarm anyone, but ... well, maybe we SHOULD be alarmed.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/06may_carringtonflare.htm

20 Comments

true story

by kcruz - 2009-04-07 03:04:40

Yes I have heard of this as well. It is said that we will see possibly major power outages and such.

Solar Flare Effects On Pacemakers

by SMITTY - 2009-04-07 04:04:12

I don't know how well informed Fideaux is but I'll agree that the effects of the solar fares on our pacemakers will be very little, if any.

Pacemakers can register the effects of severe solar storms, though there is no danger to the patient from the 'glitches' that occur.

Modern pacemakers are actually small computers that run sophisticated programs. That means they are subject to radiation-induced, SEUs just like satellite electronics.

Energetic particles reaching the ground can cause pacemaker glitches that are, fortunately, undetectable to the user.


The above came from http://www.solarstorms.org/SPacemakers.html. For details on this subject, you might check out this site.

Are You Speaking ...

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-07 04:04:19

... from an informed position, or is that just an opinion?

Thanks, Smitty, But ...

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-07 05:04:05

The info on that site is a little thin for the type of event they're predicting. They speak very generally in terms of "devices such as pacemakers," and "could have an effect ..." I just think that maybe someone ought to take a serious look at this -- in the context of Solar Cycle 24 -- and ask a few questions and do a little math.

I mean, not that it matters. If my chest is going to burst into flames in October of 2011, it isn't as though I have a whole lot of options for dealing with the problem.

But I could at least plan on not sleeping with anyone for the month ;<}

Thanks for the head's up!

by furnhusch - 2009-04-07 06:04:14

I needed one more thing to worry about! Especially one I can't do a darned thing about!

Solar Flares

by SMITTY - 2009-04-07 07:04:31

I expect that our PM makers are looking at this very closely, not necessarily trying to figure out to keep us safe through this, but to see if there may be buck in for them So don't be surprised if they start offering gold, platinum or lead shields for our PM just in case.

In my area we have lots of deep limestone caves so I guess I could start leasing up some of those to charge admission for admittance to the PM wearers. And since the number of people with a PM grows by leap and bounds each day, I could be on my way to becoming very rich at last.

Of course there are two little problems over which I'll have no control. One is living until 2012 and then there will be the problem of how to protect myself and all my customers from the heavy shower of neutrinos that are sure to come from those solar flares.

On second thought I think I'll just wait and let my government provide me with what I need. I see evidence every day that there are some people in Washington that are dead certain that they have the answers to all our problems so I think I'll just turn this one over to them and go back to sleep.

Smitty

Coupla Clarifications

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-08 04:04:48

They're saying it will peak around 12-21-12, but it could be intense before that, and after, for a year either way. So I think "too soon to look at it" doesn't really work. We've already entered the cycle; if it gets intense in say December of 2011, we're talking two-and-a-half years here ... that's to figure out 1) If there's a problem, and 2) If there's a solution, and 3) Implementing that solution.

I don't know how many people have pacemakers, but if there were, say, 5 million, and the solution required adding a grounding wire (I'm pulling that out of the ether, I have no idea) to the device, then we're talking 5 million surgeries. If we're talking about a specific kind of shield, than we're talking about manufacturing 5 million of them. In any scenario, it would take time.

I'm just suggesting (and hoping) that maybe someone here or elsewhere with the scientific/medical background might get curious about this and say, "Hey, let's do a little math, maybe run some tests, see what happens." I'd sure like to know.

But I do think, sputnick, that we shouldn't be too frightened either. Sun science keeps changing. They don't completely understand why what happens happens or whether any given prediction will emerge as fact.

I just think -- you know -- it doesn't hurt to look and see "what if," given the history.

Waiting To See

by SMITTY - 2009-04-08 04:04:49

Hi Sputnik,

It is too soon to be worrying about this. The experts are predicting this event will occur on 12-21-2012. Since iIt will occur on the sun which is about 90 million miles from us and assuming that whatever is coming our way will travel at the speed of light, that means its travel time to earth will be about 10 min.. That should be enough time to shuck the top and join Sue topless to get a battery recharge. If that doesn't appeal to you, you can have a beach umbrella already prepared by covering it with aluminum foil to stand under for protection.

Or, you can always join me out in my front yard looking into the sky to see if I can see these things.

Smitty

Scary!!

by sputnick - 2009-04-08 09:04:23

Now you really are frightening me !!

Could be useful

by ElectricFrank - 2009-04-08 12:04:25

With all that energy it should recharge our pacer batteries. The only problem is that my battery won't last that long.

Just think about being on one of those new jet aircraft where it is not only navigated by GPS, but the controls are electronically operated. By the time the flare hits our cars will have the same control systems.

Cheer up, maybe we will be hit by an asteroid first.

frank

Well, If It's Motivational ...

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-09 05:04:11

Fear can be useful. I don't think it's the least bit unreasonable to want to ask about this situation.

I have no idea what could happen, and apparently no one else does either. But when I read that these flares caused telegraphs to burst into flames in 1859, or that solar flares caused transformers at a New Jersey power station to melt in 1989, well ... again, I think it's perfectly reasonable to ask the question.

I'm sorry you're scared. I've been on death's door so many times that it doesn't really bother me anymore. However, I do try to prudently avoid it when possible ;<}

What needs to happen, I would think, is an independent panel of some sort looking at the issue. If you just ask the pacemaker companies, they have motivation to just deny a problem; if you ask a random doctor, he's likely not to take the time to research it. The NASA people put it in their pile of concerns, but it's a really big pile, so it isn't getting much attention.

I'll keep researching and let you know.

It';s o.k

by sputnick - 2009-04-09 06:04:17

I know you are only trying to alert people, I wasn't trying to have a go at you, but it's difficult to know what to do about itT I don't pretend to have any knowledge of electromagnetic fields or surges or whatever, and being a bit of a control freak. don't like the idea of not being able to anything about what couls be a dangerous situation. However, after having shared a bottle of wine with a good friend, I will go to bed now without a care in the world (till I wake up in the morning)
Good night everyone, Jan

Reminds me

by ElectricFrank - 2009-04-09 12:04:33

Reminds me of the story about the guy who when told that the world would end in 10,000yrs, responded "Whew, I thought you said 1,000yrs. I'm so relieved".

frank

Too late!!

by sputnick - 2009-04-09 12:04:52

Sorry cyborg, it's too late to say don't be scared, youve already started something! I have been thinking about it all night! My husband and son have tried to reassure me but it'd not working! I will only relax now when that date is passed, thanx 4 that! What exactly is supposed to happen to us? Will it just be that the pm will stop working or What?
Believe me smitty no-one wants to see me topless! With my clothes on I look pretty o.k. for a 55 yearold,
but not flashing my bits! I think I might take you up on sitting in the front yard, I've never been to Texas, at least I would get a tan b4 I snuff it. I'm not likely to get one in rainy Lancashire!
Jan

Sun Spot

by SMITTY - 2009-04-10 01:04:00

I don't know where Fideaux got his information but I never made any secret of the fact that mine came from http://www.solarstorms.org/SPacemakers.html since I posted that address.

Maybe Fideaux took my suggestion and went there looking, You say it is essentially a fourth level primer on space weather. I'm glad to know that I can read at the fourth grade level, but for your information that was not the only site I visited. It just seemed to provide the best information in terms even I could handle. I guess you get all your info from no less than the scientists at MIT.

Regardless, I'll agree with Fideaux that it looks like you are playing the Chicken Little game and enjoying yourself trying to scare hell out of a bunch of people. You might want to consider adding to your attempts at scaring people that there just MAY BE and asteroid out there that hasn't been discovered yet and it is on a beeline for earth. When it strikes, if it does, it will wipe out most, if not all of the population. Of course if that happens the problems fro a gigantic sun spot will be moot.

Or, you could do what most people do, wait until there is a known threat before you start putting out warnings.

With that I will close my book on this discussiion and go start looking for a deep cave to hide in. You can then let me know what happened.

The Bottom Line

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-10 01:04:07

I'm not suggesting that we all set our hair on fire and run onto a busy freeway.

What I'm asking is fairly simple: For some responsible agency or university somewhere to do the research and testing required to say with reasonable confidence what effect another Carrington Event will have on pacemakers.

I don't think that's asking for the moon.

Do As Ye Will

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-10 03:04:23

I get my information from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, and NASA. This isn't an emotional issue to me. If it upsets you, don't look at it. I will continue to gather information, and anyone else who wishes to take a proactive stance in investigating this issue is welcome and encouraged to do so.

Again: What I'm asking is fairly simple: For some responsible agency or university somewhere to do the research and testing required to say with reasonable confidence what effect another Carrington Event will have on pacemakers.

I don't think that's asking for the moon.

Solid facts

by sputnick - 2009-04-10 04:04:23

I still don't understand what effect all this is supposed to have on our pm's. I would like any info in the future that is concrete and based on proper scientific fact, so by all means Cyborg, keep researching!
Jan

Relief !

by sputnick - 2009-04-10 09:04:43

Thanks fideaux, I feel abit less concerned about it now!
Jan

Choose To Feel Great! If Information Makes You Feel Bad, Please Choose To Focus On Something Else. I Will Happily Work On This On Your Behalf. I Enjoy The Research, Which Is Why I Do It.

by CyborgMountainHuffer - 2009-04-10 12:04:58

Fideaux, I think you may be trying to make people feel better at the expense of rational, prudent thought on the subject.

Both your response, and Smitty's, come from SolarStorms.org ... the first website that pops up when you plug in "solar flares pacemaker." This site is essentially a fourth-grade level primer on space weather. This is not adequate research from which to draw your conclusions.

If you do serious research, for example, you would not have bothered to have posted this: "People on the ground are well protected from the ongoing geomagnetic storm due to the Earth's natural shielding. ... since the Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere block the solar radiation." You would have known that they recently discovered a hole in the magnetosphere larger than the Earth itself, and that this hole will be perfectly aligned to receive a solar burst of plasma right around the equinox -- at the exact time of the solar maximum.

It's regrettable that some folks will react emotionally to this, but I don't think that's an excuse to stick our heads in the sand and pretend that this doesn't exist.
It should be noted that Fideaux is correct in saying that "it is not even a certainly that it will happen then or that it will be of the speculated strength." We can take comfort in that.

But NASA and NOAA are looking at the possibility of this event in the context of massive electrical damage across the world. In other words, pacers are right now very low on their radar -- just one more thing in a pile of potential problems. It isn't as though there's some huge advocacy group for people with implants. WE are that advocacy group. If WE aren't raising these concerns, who will?

I'll leave you with a blurb from New Scientist regarding the National Academy of Sciences report, and the web address for the article. You can choose to read it and offer an informed opinion, or you can ignore it. But I'm not going to feel badly about giving people the information:

"I don't think the NAS report is scaremongering," says Mike Hapgood, who chairs the European Space Agency's space weather team. Green agrees. "Scientists are conservative by nature and this group is really thoughtful," he says. "This is a fair and balanced report."

The world will, most probably, yawn at the prospect of a devastating solar storm until it happens. Kintner says his students show a "deep indifference" when he lectures on the impact of space weather. But if policy-makers show a similar indifference in the face of the latest NAS report, it could cost tens of millions of lives, Kappenman reckons. "It could conceivably be the worst natural disaster possible," he says.

So what should be done? No one knows yet - the report is meant to spark that conversation. Baker is worried, though, that the odds are stacked against that conversation really getting started. As the NAS report notes, it is terribly difficult to inspire people to prepare for a potential crisis that has never happened before and may not happen for decades to come. "It takes a lot of effort to educate policy-makers, and that is especially true with these low-frequency events," he says.

We should learn the lessons of hurricane Katrina, though, and realise that "unlikely" doesn't mean "won't happen". Especially when the stakes are so high. The fact is, it could come in the next three or four years - and with devastating effects. "The Carrington event happened during a mediocre, ho-hum solar cycle," Kintner says. "It came out of nowhere, so we just don't know when something like that is going to happen again."

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?page=1

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I just want to share about the quality of life after my pacemaker, and hopefully increase awareness that lifestyles do not have to be drastically modified just because we are pacemaker recipients.